A friendly encounter

Tonight at Wembley Stadium a host of Scottish fans will be on hand for the friendly to be played against the English. To be perfectly honest, the probability of a victory for the sons of Caledonia is small.

Today The Guardian reports that a 'yes' vote for Scots independence is also highly unlikely.

The campaign for Scottish independence has 'virtually no chance' of victory, according to Nate Silver, the polling expert who accurately called the outcomes of the 2008 and 2012 American presidential elections. In an interview with The Scotsman, Silver, who correctly predicted the results of all fifty states in 2012, said the Scottish data was 'pretty definitive'. "There's virtually no chance that the 'yes' side will win," he said.

This leaves me with mixed feelings. On the one hand, I think that a free Scotland would be an exciting historical development. On the other, as a storyteller I am relieved that my current manuscript will fall more firmly into the 'speculative fiction' category. For the story is set in the spring of 2016, in the months just prior to an Independence Day replete with ambiguities and intrigue.

Of course, even the most lauded experts can sometimes be wrong!