The Mercutio Option

 

Regardless of what happens next in Syria, regardless of the eventual outcome, the discourse will be poisoned for many years to come by the 'false flag' notion which will have enduring appeal for conspiracy theorists worlwide, and not just in Venezuela. The argument that the are elements of the anti-Bashar movement who would be delighted to see the United States become embroilled one more in an unstable Middle East is not without foundation. Any 'mission creep' would ensure that already fragile regimes in the region might implode under the pressure of events, that simmering conflagrations could heat up and go critical. What better way to acclerate the process than to mount a spectacularly merciless chemical weapons attack... the wholesale creation of martyrs... which would be blamed on Assad's army... it would not be the first time that a 'false flag' operation has precipitated dire consequences.

Whatever the outcome, the foregoing will be firmly believed by many whose trust in governments, particularly those of western nations, has evaporated, if it ever existed. Might those governments be considering this disturbing factor as they now ponder the appropriate steps to take? Has the bitter aftertaste of non-existent Iraqi WMDs no longer a cautionary effect? Can military action be risked in the absence of a 'smoking gun' bearing unquestionable fingerprints?

On the other hand, is the current decision-making helped or hindered by the huge amount of intelligence which must be on the tables of those who are claiming loudly that 'doing nothing' is no longer an option? Surely every square metre of Syrian territory is under permanent high-definition satellite and UAV observation? Surely there is humint on the ground within the country's borders? Has everybody forgotten the movie 'Argo'?

Are there not hard-headed cynics somewhere listing potential targets on both sides, not just the Syrian military elite and their resources but also the less welcome units opposing them?

Operation Mercutio... A plague on both your houses.

[Post self-redacted to avoid terms tending to excite digital panopticists] 

Update: Friday 11am, The Guardian

"As the US seems intent on military action in Syria, it is not just the Assad regime that is bracing itself. Jihadists intent on bringing down the Syrian government fear that the US may seek to kill two birds with one stone by targeting them as well, amid fears that they emerge the winners if the Assad regime is overthrown."