Wednesday, June 08, 2016

Heads or tails?

“It’s the biggest consumer decision any of us will ever make. It affects our economy, foreign policy, immigration policy, security and sovereignty. Our vote on whether the UK should leave the EU will reverberate through our lifetimes, and those of our children and grandchildren.  I’m sorry, but the most important thing to understand is: there are no facts about what happens next. Anyone who tells you they know what’ll happen if we leave the EU is a liar. Predicting exact numbers for economic, immigration or house price change is nonsense. What’s proposed is unprecedented. All the studies, models and hypotheses are based on assumptions – that’s guesstimate and hope.”

Martin Lewis does not go on to say that voters might just as well flip a coin. But they should realize that if it comes up ‘heads’, they will still not know how things might have looked if ‘tails’ had won the toss.

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